Russia has not achieved military success but has successfully used nuclear bluster to restrain the U.S. from providing Ukraine with what it needs. Preventing nuclear proliferation is a long-standing U.S. priority, but the lesson of this war is that acquiring nuclear weapons is the only reliable deterrent. The result would be a more dangerous world and weakened U.S. influence.
North Korea has been aiding Russia without facing any consequences precisely because it has become a nuclear state. President Zelenskyy recently remarked that without NATO membership Ukraine might need to pursue the nuclear option.
Russia views treaties as temporary expedients. The U.S., UK, and Russia gave Ukraine security assurances in return for giving up its nukes in 1994. Putin himself has signed agreements confirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
Except for on the Eastern Flank, NATO nations still don’t take the Russian menace seriously and are unwilling to significantly boost defense spending.
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