Some observers felt that the avoidance of recrimination and accusation does not necessarily translate into enthusiastic pursuit of friendly relations.
But expectations for the meeting, the first such event in over eight years, were positive. Medvedev observed that, ”If we partly step out of the frame of ideology that exists in our relations, we could give a good boost to the economy as well as to developing relations between our people. I hope we can do it.”
Ansip similarly stated: “Everything that is possible should be done so that our relations continue to develop and so that our countries' citizens receive part of the fruit of our cooperation.”
Trade statistics show the progress in economic relations between the two countries. While Russia accounted for 2.4% of Estonia's exports in 2000, in 2012 it reached between 12 and 16%. Similarly the growth of Russian tourists visiting Estonia is placed at 30 to 50% a year. It was inevitable that business people dependent on the Russian market for their companies' success dreaded the possibility of any negative moments at the summit based on ideological differences, interpretations of history etc.
The meeting took place during the St. Petersburg summit held by the Council of the Baltic Sea States. According to official Estonian government press releases the meeting focussed on bilateral relations, economic issues and cooperation in different sectors. Some expect agreement on a new border treaty this year.
In fact a border agreement would be a prerequisite in promoting cross-border cooperation. Since Russia is pushing vigorously for visa-free access to the European Union, Ansip stated that this would contribute to enhanced mutual relations. But he also added that Russia would have to fulfill the relevant technical conditions, including smooth border crossings, something that is sorely missing in border crossing points between Russia and Estonia.
The meeting acknowledged that progress had been made on emergencies, diplomatic real estate, higher education and the avoidance of double taxation (which has existed between Canada and Estonia for years).
Skeptics (many would name them realists) did not see the possibility of any genuine and lasting breakthrough. They pointed to the track record of the last twenty years, when historic reversals of bad to good relations had been expected and never materialized. In fact every time a new Russian ambassador has taken up his posting in Tallinn, expectations of a cautious but still fundamental change are reported in the media.
One inevitably questions whether Medvedev's seemingly independent stance on relations with former Soviet-occupied countries such as Estonia has validity and substance. Or does it still need the blessing of President Vladimir Putin who is promoting a renewed Russian nationalism.
If one were to believe the sincerity of Putin's comments at the ceremonial presentation of Estonian Ambassador Jüri Luik's credentials in January, it would at first glance appear that Medvedev had Putin's approval: “We are prepared to establish constructive relations with the Republic of Estonia, based on good-neighbourly principles and consideration of mutual interests,” Putin said.
Others saw Putin's observations as simply diplomatic etiquette, the norm at such occasions. They insist that there is no point in attributing any deeper meaning to Putin's words. More than a few friendly handshakes and kind words are necessary to reverse mutual suspicions at the political level. It's simply disingenuous to suggest that Moscow will outright refrain from its tedious litany of human rights abuses, its denial of the fact of occupation, its threats of military intervention to “protect the interests” of its citizens etc.
The curiosity in this dynamic is the increasing interest that the typical Russian has toward Estonia. It's reflected in the souring visitations to Estonia. Perhaps the Russian government could take a cue from its ordinary citizen. Yes, even that might be a naïve suggestion.
Laas Leivat
