In his Victory Day Parade Vladimir Putin stated that the world is at a turning point with Russia defending the citizens of Donbas from attacks by the West. Zelensky stated that “we are defending our villages from Russian aggression and leave it to the International Crimes Court to deal with Putin”. As of day 446, Russian forces continue to hold about half of four provinces of Eastern Ukraine and all of Crimea which was seized in 2014. Russia has badly underestimated the resilience of Ukrainians and the resolve of NATO while overestimating its own capabilities.
As of mid-April 2023, Russian forces have suffered about 40,000 deaths and 165,000 wounded. Ukrainians have incurred about 16,500 deaths, half of these civilians, and 111,250 wounded, among them 14,815 civilians according to the US Defense Intelligence Agency. Although the casualty rate is much higher among the invaders, they draw from a far higher population. And Putin selectively draws disproportionately from rural and minority populations. Muscovites and St. Petersburgers are not dying on the battlefields of Ukraine.
Total combat losses of Russian aggressors in Ukraine from 24 February 2022 to 15 May 2023 (and since May 1st 2023): 199,460 (8500 troops lost (injured and killed in 14 days); 3759 tanks (59); 7336-(44) armored vehicles; 3137 (216) artillery systems; 562 (18) Multiple rocket launch systems; 316 (21) anti-aircraft warfare systems; 308 (0) aircraft; 294 (0) helicopters; 6034 (189) military auto vehicles and fuel tanks; 2720 (244) Drones; 407 (48) special military equipment; 973 (41) cruise missiles. – General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russian forces lose more than 600 soldiers per day.
The much anticipated Spring offensives are gathering strength. The Russian Navy has been driven out of Sevastopol by drone attacks. Russian naval commanders have ordered their Black Sea fleet to move to Novorossiysk. Many Russian settlers are attempting to sell the homes they have occupied in Crimea and are moving back to Russia fleeing across the Kerch bridge. Russian forces are still in disarray, suffering from morale and drinking problems at the front lines, desertions from fighting with 32,000 troops surrendering to Ukrainian forces where they are fed and given new clothes. Russian forces also suffer shortages of officers and rivalries between the regular military command headed by Gerasimov and the private armies of Prigozhin and Kadyrov.
Furthermore, Russian forces are running short of ammunition and are increasingly relying on older tanks because Western sanctions are slowing the economy of Russia, including war production. Putin’s mobilization tactics have angered all non-Russian communities and Russians living outside St. Petersburg and Moscow. At the same time, one million young people have left Russia. The consequent labor shortages are affecting all sectors of industry in Russia, which will lead to revenue shortfalls that coincide with increasing military expenditures. Oil and gas revenues are down by half since the EU shifted to other sources. The resulting budget deficit will burn through Russian cash reserves before the end of 2023 according to economists at the World Bank.
Nevertheless, long-range cruise missiles launched by Russia still kill civilians in Ukraine. The air defenses of Ukraine are able to intercept about 75% of incoming cruise missiles. Restricting the range of Ukrainian defenses to short distances allows Russia to launch missiles from longer ranges with impunity, and providing only a few fighter jets also restricts Ukrainian defenses. The recent statement of Chancellor Scholz that NATO weapons cannot be used on Russian targets, fearing this would provoke Putin. For the same reason, the US refuses to provide jet fighters to Ukraine. After more than a year of mounting war crimes, the policies of limiting Ukraine’s military capacities and the importance of Crimea were debated on May 5th at the NATO priorities conference hosted by the Atlantic Council.
On Europe Day, Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany, stated “we must not be intimidated by threats of Putin, we must stand with Ukraine as long as it takes”. This position was backed up by British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly on May 9th and is the position of US President Biden. More importantly, support for Ukraine has increased and is evolving to provide more advanced and longer range weapons to Ukraine to end the war sooner and decisively. On May 10th Ben Wallace, UK Secretary of Defense, announced that long range cruise missiles will be sent to Ukraine. “We cannot stand by idly and watch Russia kill civilians”.
(to be continued)
