We must remember that after the start of Russia’s invasion, from March to May 2022, several rounds of attempted negotiations failed because Russia was unreliable in committing to peace and was stalling for time to reinforce and regroup.
Putin had every reason to believe that the West would back down if he invaded Ukraine. The incursion into Georgia in 2008, that allowed Russia to occupy 20% of Georgian territory, Moscow’s military takeover of Crimea and its annexation in 2014 and the attack into the Donbas in 2014 emboldened Putin. It also heightened his sense of ownership and whetted his appetite for more. The aggression went mostly unimpeded, accompanied by a failed Western response.
Russia’s total withdrawal from Ukraine before talks seems to be the dominant Western position. Russia’s intense bombing and their obvious massive reinforcement of forces making Ukraine’s surrender is Moscow’s pre-negotiation position.
